Farmers Facing Risk: Evidence from Ethanol Plant Expansion in the Midwest
Job Market Paper · Solo-authored
A growing literature attributes declining farm numbers and increasing average farm size to the expansion of crop insurance. I argue that these patterns may instead reflect underlying price risk and heterogeneous risk aversion. I develop a representative-farmer model in which producers face stochastic input and output prices. The model predicts that increased price risk disproportionately contracts the acreage and input use of more risk-averse operators, typically smaller farms, and can induce exit. I test these predictions using a county-level panel of agricultural land sales in Wisconsin and Illinois from 2013 to 2024 and plausibly exogenous variation in local corn-price exposure generated by ethanol-plant expansion. Greater nearby ethanol capacity increases farm-sale activity, has little to no affect on agricultural land values, increases the acreage of farm sales, increases the average size and decreases the number of surviving farms, with the strongest effects near ethanol plants.
Agriculture's Nitrogen Solution
Working Paper · Solo-authored · 2025 University of Oregon Best Field Paper
Using a geospatial watershed panel modeled on upstream–downstream hydrologic relationships, I estimate the effects of perennial grass, pasture, corn, and soybean acreage on downstream dissolved nitrogen concentrations. Perennial pasture substantially reduces downstream nitrogen, including in watersheds with persistent legacy nitrogen, while corn acreage increases nitrogen concentrations. The results identify an environmental advantage of perennial pasture relative to annual row-crop production and show that pasture-based livestock systems can improve water quality while remaining economically viable.
Extractive Behavior Before Exit? Evidence from Farm Sales and Climate Risk in the Midwest
Third Dissertation Essay · With Edward Rubin
I link agricultural real estate transfers in Wisconsin and Illinois to annual USDA Cropland Data Layer classifications and high-resolution measures of drought and extreme heat. Event-study and fixed-effects designs test whether rotations become less diverse before transfer, whether climate shocks increase farm-sale activity, and whether climate-induced sales exhibit more extractive pre-sale land use.
Crop Insurance, Price Risk, and Agricultural Consolidation
Restricted-Data Project
Using USDA Agricultural Resource Management Survey Phase 2 and Phase 3 data, I disentangle the effects of underlying price risk from those of crop-insurance coverage on acreage, crop allocation, input use, and farm financial outcomes. A complementary structural model characterizes choices across insured and uninsured crops under stochastic prices, heterogeneous risk aversion, land suitability, and incomplete insurance.
Producer Adoption and Cultural Evolution of Rotational Grazing Systems
Producer Survey Project · Extending UW–Madison Grassland 2.0 Research
I test whether adopting rotational grazing for dairy heifers increases the probability of subsequent whole-herd adoption of pasture-based dairy production. The project studies how social norms, incremental learning, information networks, and transitional technologies shape the diffusion of sustainable agricultural systems.
Groundwater Regulation, Agricultural Adaptation, and Water Quality
Solo-authored · Difference-in-Differences Analysis
I exploit three increasingly stringent groundwater policies implemented in Oregon's Harney Basin beginning in 2016. I estimate policy effects on groundwater levels, producer crop choices, and downstream nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations, linking regulation to resource conservation, agricultural adaptation, and environmental quality.